Work hard and you will find success

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GOLDNET.MARKET - “We want and are working to provide business with the opportunity to develop a lot of activity areas”

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30 august 2021

World Gold Jewelry Fabrication -10%, Expect Further Declines in 2009

08 april 2009

World gold jewelry fabrication fell 10 percent in 2008 as jewelry demand was hurt by high prices and the slowdown in the global economy. Fabrication will likely continue to decline in 2009, while prices remain high and the world economic outlook remains uncertain, according to a statement released Tuesday by U.K.-based GFMS Metals Consulting, RAPAPORT reported.
The group said the decline in 2008 was equivalent to almost 250 metric tons (276 tons). Fabrication fell most steeply in the first half, rose nearly 10 percent in the third quarter and was steady in the final quarter of 2008. Fabrication demand decreased in most parts of the world, although India saw the biggest drop. Jewelry demand there was down almost 100 tons. Demand fell by almost a fifth in Italy and by 10 percent in the Middle East. China registered the only increase. Demand there grew modestly to a record high, owing to a stronger yuan, an increase in investor demand and strong domestic consumption.
Gold prices could easily trade above $1,000 a troy ounce in the coming months, and may even reach above $1,100 per ounce from investor demand, but the rise won't be a straight line. "The price may have pulled back a fair bit from the February highs, but that was largely just the market's reaction to jewelry demand crumbling and scrap booming," Philip Klapwijk, chairman of GFMS, said at the group's Gold Survey launch. "It's far from game over for investors and it will be that crowd which sets the price alight." However, Klapwijk warned that a summer lull or the need for inflationary pressures to build could mean sub-$900-per-ounce prices in the short term to between $800 and $850 an ounce. Furthermore, rising scrap supplies are weighing on prices, he said. The global supply of scrap gold in 2008 was up 27 percent to a record high of more than 1,200 metric tons (1323 tons).
"We expect another record year for scrap sales," Klapwijk said. Countering that, net investment in 2008 soared by nearly 76 percent, with record inflows into gold exchange-traded funds during the year, which provided significant support to prices, GFMS said. That investment will grow in 2009 due to ongoing concerns over the global economy and the health of the financial system.
GFMS said that fiscal and monetary policies currently being enacted, particularly by the U.S. administration, are the root cause of gold's potential, because of their ability to generate inflationary pressures. Central banks will also be reluctant to raise interest rates while prospects for economic growth are still uncertain, and the dollar could weaken if other countries lose their interest or ability to finance U.S. debt. Both will support gold prices, GFMS said.
In addition to forecasting strong investment demand, the group said that central bank gold sales should fall further in 2009 and that should help offset a drop in jewelry use and increased scrap sales. However, gold mine output should recover from the 12-year low that it hit in 2008, and rise by 30 tons in 2009, GFMS predicts. "Strength in investment will certainly be needed to overcome weakness in the fundamentals," Klapwijk said.