Think there's no money in watch batteries? Wal-Mart Supercenters changed 18 million batteries last year, sources say. At a wholesale cost of roughly 40 cents apiece, charging $4.24 retail for each battery delivers a gross profit of $69 million.

The argument for a stronger renminbi is even more compelling as a result of these changes. Chinese low-cost producers compete more directly with producers in emerging economies, increasing the risks of factory closures and job losses. Moreover, many governments in the emerging markets do not have sufficient fiscal resources to pay unemployment benefits or to fund economic reform.

Carriage-trade luxury went south a while ago, and with it went the carriage trade itself, says the New York Times. On the way out, it passed a new class of people who — although they might never be able to afford an apartment at 740 Park Avenue or a summer place in Dark Harbor — had acquired both the ability and the hankering to purchase themselves little nothings from Vuitton, Chanel or Dior. And thus, even in a recession, the client most crucial to luxury goods purveyors is no longer a Rockefeller but a Real Housewife of New York.